Agricultural productivity: half a century in the rearview mirror. And tomorrow?

A flood of numbers: data recently released online by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)[1] deliver an implacable observation. Since the beginning of the 1960s, the value of agricultural production per hectare in sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa) has increased approximately four times less quickly than in developing Asian countries (+72 % against +301 %) and half as quickly as in Latin America.

The comparison is all the more significant since this value is expressed in constant dollars and in purchasing power parity. Furthermore, since the available area per agricultural worker has decreased in Africa, while it has increased in the other two regions, production per agricultural worker south of the Sahara has grown by only 43%, almost eight times less quickly than in developing Asia and six times less quickly than in Latin America. As a result, over the period 2012-16, an agricultural worker in sub-Saharan Africa produced on average half as much, in value, as their Asian counterpart and nine times less than their Latin American equivalent (table).

Of course, the comparison says nothing about the relative evolution of agricultural incomes in the different regions, because production per worker does not take into account the cost of agricultural inputs and equipment, which are used much more in Asia and Latin America than in Africa. However, according to the World Bank, the gaps in gross value added per worker – an indicator that includes intermediate consumption – are considerable between the three regions.[2]Furthermore, the growth in agricultural production has come at the cost of significant pressure on the environment, through the massive spreading of fertilizers and phytosanitary products and deforestation that is problematic to say the least.

The USDA's retrospective data raises questions about the future trajectories of agricultural development. If, all other things being equal, the value of production per agricultural worker in sub-Saharan Africa increases, by 2050, at the same rate as in the last thirty years (+40% in total), it will barely reach 1,200 euros, a level one-third lower than that recorded today in developing Asian countries. At this rate, the income gap will undoubtedly have widened further between urban and rural areas and extreme poverty will be far from being eradicated, contrary to the objective set for... 2030 by the Sustainable Development Goals. Productivity growth must therefore accelerate: a formidable challenge since it involves both developing knowledge and disseminating techniques and means of production that will enable small African farmers to improve their incomes in ecologically acceptable conditions, while providing food at an affordable cost for consumers. It is also a political challenge, because it is up to the continent's structurally impecunious states to support this transition, the security and geopolitical dimensions of which are becoming increasingly apparent every day.

[1] https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/international-agricultural-productivity/

[2] In 2018, gross value added per worker in the "agriculture, forestry, fishing" sector averaged $1,594 in sub-Saharan Africa, $3,510 in East Asia (excluding high-income countries), and $7,189 in Latin America. GVA per agricultural worker in South Asia ($1,591) is identical to that observed in sub-Saharan Africa (all these values are expressed in 2010 dollars).