North Africa–United States: Key figures for a changing trade

After a dedicated analysis With the overall dynamics of North African agricultural exports showing strong growth and the importance of the European outlet, FARM has been exploring trade with the United States since 2012. In a context marked by Donald Trump's announcements on a tightening of American trade policies, we examine the distribution between raw and processed products, the dominant sectors by country, as well as the risks linked to the American market..

The second part of the analysis on North African exports is part of a series of publications devoted to the dynamics and changes in African agricultural and food exports. Find these analyses on: https://fondation-farm.org/publications/

Between 2012 and 2023, agricultural exports from North African countries to UNITED STATES have almost tripled (+148 %) in value, increasing from approximately USD 340 million to 843 million USD. This growth, faster than that of the North African exports to all markets combined (+139 % over the same period), reflects the emergence of the American market as a significant, although still secondary, outlet. In 2023, the United States will absorb around 5 % of North Africa's total agricultural exports (excluding Africa), far behind Europe (around 13 %). Nevertheless, this share is increasing and the American market plays a strategic role for certain niche and high added value products that the region exports.

More than 90% of North African exports to the United States are food products., confirming the essentially agri-food profile of these exchanges. In 2023, the share of non-food products remains below 7 %. This configuration is comparable to that observed in other major markets – Europe and the Middle East – where edible products also dominate (previous article). Agricultural trade with the United States is therefore almost exclusively focused on food sectors: fruits, vegetables, oils, dates, etc.

Chart 1

Morocco relegated to 3rd place^th place

Regarding the distribution by country, Morocco, the leading exporter in 2012, saw Egypt and Tunisia overtake it. Egypt confirmed its position as the region's leading agricultural exporter, including to the United States (387 million USD). This figure, which has risen remarkably since 2012 (+290 %), nevertheless represents only 6 % of Egyptian agri-food exports and the United States remains an outlet secondary for Egypt in relation to its main markets which are the Middle East, Europe and now Asia.

There Tunisia saw its exports to the United States double over the decade, making the United States its third largest agricultural export market.

Between them, Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco represent the bulk (over 98,100 million) of North African agricultural exports to the American market. Algeria contributes only a very modest fraction (less than 2 %) of these flows in 2023.

An American market fond of processed products

The American market stands out from the European market by a strong demand for processed products with higher added value. In 2023, approximately 77 % of North African agricultural exports to the United States were processed products (oils, canned goods, food preparations, frozen fruits and vegetables), compared to only 23 % of raw materials. This proportion highlights a upgrade more pronounced exports to the United States compared to other destinations.

Chart 2

What Does North Africa Sell to the United States? Key Products and Evolution Since 2012

The positive development of North African exports to the United States is largely driven by the success of certain flagship sectors : L'packaged olive oil, THE edible fruits (fresh and frozen fruits) and the fruit and vegetable preparations (canned goods, juices, etc.). Since most of the products concerned are processed, access to the American market allows North African countries to capture more added value on their agricultural exports. This gain constitutes an important lever for the development of the region's agricultural sectors.

Chart 3

Source: FARM, based on CEPII data (BACI, 2025)

Country Overview: Which Agricultural Specialties Are Exported to the United States?

Despite a common base dominated by fruits, vegetables and oils, each North African country has developed a specialization for its exports on the American market.

• Egypt: progressive diversification towards value-added products

L'Egypt significantly increased its agricultural exports to the United States, from USD 99 million in 2012 to 387 million USD in 2023. Egyptian exports to the United States are focused on some key categories :

• • THE fruit and vegetable preparations constitute 34 % of Egyptian agricultural exports to the United States. The value of these exports was multiplied by four in the space of a decade, to reach 131 million USD in 2023These include potato preparations (USD 31 million), olives (USD 24 million), jams, jellies, purees, etc. (USD 20 million) and fruit juices (USD 13 million).

• • THE edible fruits represent no less than 24 % of agricultural exports (94 million USD) and are composed of dried fruits (68 million USD) and fresh or frozen strawberries and raspberries (26 million USD).

• • Other categories such as " edible vegetables, roots and tubers» (53 million USD), the spices (24 million USD) as well as industrial plants for medical, perfumery and insecticide uses… (25 million USD) together weighs 26 % of exports to the American market.

Chart 4

• Tunisia: olive oil and dates, mainstays of exports

For the Tunisia, the American market is of particular importance. In 2023, Tunisian agricultural exports to the United States reached 241 million USD, or nearly 17,100,000 of its global agri-food exports (a much higher proportion than for its neighbors). two pillars of Tunisian agricultural exports to the North American market are packaged olive oil and the dates. Long exported in bulk to Europe, Tunisian olive oil is now increasingly conditioned for direct export to markets such as the United States. By 2023, approximately 24 % exported Tunisian olive oil was sold on the American marketThey more than doubled between 2012 and 2023, going from 104 to 215 million USD.

Another Tunisian success story in the US market is date exports. Despite modest growth of 18.1% between 2012 and 2023, the country is the leading supplier of dates in the United States according to the Tunisian Daily.

This Tunisian performance on the American market has largely contributed to the increase in the share of processed products in regional exports, particularly with packaged olive oil which is a high added value product.

Chart 5

• Morocco : citrus breakthrough

THE Morocco approaches the American market with a specific orientation, focused mainly on fresh fruitIn 2023, its agricultural exports to the United States amounted to 205 million USD, which represents only 3 % of its total agri-food exports, Morocco being very focused on the European Union. However, this value has increased (+68 % compared to 2012) and reflects a growing interest in the American market.

Exports are concentrated mainly on citrus fruits, especially clementines and mandarins which represent almost half (49 %) of Moroccan agri-food products destined for the American market. In addition to citrus fruits, Morocco exports some processed products to the United States. These include prepared olives and their preserves (15 %) and olive oil in smaller quantities than Tunisia (6 %).

Morocco benefits from a free trade agreement with the United States since 2006, which has removed most tariff barriers on its agricultural products, except for a few tariff quotas on sensitive products. Despite this advantage, its exports to the American market remain modest compared to those of its Egyptian and Tunisian neighbors, and remain largely concentrated on the European Union, at the risk of excessive dependence on this market.

Chart 6

• Algeria: an almost non-existent presence

L'Algeria is an exception due to its very low level of integration into agricultural trade. Its agricultural exports to the United States are anecdotal, of the order of only 10 million dollars in 2023 (out of a regional total of 843 million). Algeria mainly exports dates to the United States, for approximately 95,% of its exports to this market. Structural obstacles – low agricultural competitiveness and priority given to supplying the internal market – could explain this contrast with that of the three other North African countries.

Chart 7

A Less Open US Market: A Risk for North Africa?

Recent months have seen a tightening of US trade policy, with the reinforcement of tariff barriers targeting many countries. North Africa, although a modest partner, is not immune to this trend, which translates into higher customs duties on products imported by the United States and constitutes a source of major concern for the region.

This concern has become a reality for Tunisia. Since August 7, 2025, the United States has been applying additional customs duties of 25 % on all products from Tunisia. Officially, this measure is part of the new American administration's desire to rebalance trade deemed to be in deficit for the USAIt is part of a broader movement of drastic tariff increases targeting many countries that export more to the United States than they import, in the wake of a more protectionist American trade policy announced last April. Although Tunisia represents only a tiny share of U.S. foreign trade, it is among the targeted countries and has been subjected to this surcharge on its agricultural exports to the American market.

The potential consequences of this tariff tightening are significant. Exports to the United States, dominated by olive oil and dates, risk losing competitiveness. Indeed, The Tunisian Daily points out that until recently, Tunisian dates entered the USA duty-free and olive oil benefited from the American Generalized System of Preferences (GSP)., which limited taxation. With +25 % of customs duties, these flagship products would mechanically become more expensive on the American market, at the risk of seeing demand fall or being ousted by competitors (Spain, Morocco, for olive oil; Algeria or other countries for dates). The surcharge could seriously undermine the competitiveness of Tunisian olive oil and dates, unless agricultural policies compensate for this additional cost. However, in 2023, the United States represented more than 24 % of the value of Tunisian olive oil exports, a significant share for the sector.

For other North African countries, the risk is also present, although less pronounced. Morocco, thanks to its bilateral free trade agreement, should in theory be protected from unilateral tariff barriers. However, customs duties of 10 % have been announced from August 7, a measure that also affects Egypt.

Although the American market is a minor outlet for these two countries (respectively 3 % and 6 % of agri-food exports from Morocco and Egypt), these protectionist measures could compromise a source of future growth of their exports.

Generally speaking, a US market decline would constitute a negative signal for North Africa. It would remind us of the vulnerability of a strategy that is too focused on a few markets and a few products. In order to counterbalance American measures and to reduce their dependence on certain outlets, the countries of the region should seek new economic partnerships to diversify, notably towards emerging markets, and notably China.