Méditerranée : quel bilan des récoltes en cette fin d'été ?

THE Mediterranean agriculture experienced several droughts and heat waves in 2023The rains arrived too late in the Maghreb and the Iberian Peninsula. Elsewhere, in Italy, Greece, Slovenia, and Croatia, excessive humidity was observed. Finally, several heatwaves—some exceptionally late—affected all Mediterranean countries. The situation is therefore very contrasting between the different countries of the basin. The FARM Foundation takes stock of the state of the harvests at the end of this summer.

Winter crops between droughts and storms

THE forecasts made at the beginning of summer on major winter crops (wheat, barley) were confirmed according to David Gasc, coordinator of the MED-Amin network at CIHEAM[1]. Cereal production was rather satisfactory in the Mediterranean, except for the Maghreb and the Iberian Peninsula affected by droughts. Italy, Greece, Slovenia and Croatia experienced storms causing some damage to agricultural land.

In the Maghreb, droughts have disrupted the development of cereal crops – particularly inland – as the rains arrived too late. Wheat production is below the five-year average: -23 % in Morocco, -22 % in Algeria and -42 % in Tunisia[2] or even less according to the Tunisian Cereals OfficeAccording to the FAO, an increase in cereal imports is expected in North Africa – a region heavily dependent on international markets – although this will be partly offset by the anticipated creation of stocks during previous seasons. Some countries in the sub-region are also trying to diversify the origin of their imports in order to limit the impact of structural shocks such as those that occurred with the war in UkraineThis diversification remains limited, however, by the high concentration of the wheat market, with the European Union and Russia remaining the main suppliers to the region.

Like the Maghreb, the Iberian Peninsula has faced droughts and intense heat affecting cereal crops. Wheat and barley yields are well below the five-year average: -38 % and -34 % for Spain and -43 % for both cultures at Portugal, according to JRC MARS forecasts[3]Some of these crops have been downgraded to fodder or left as pasture in several regions.

Slovenia, Croatia and parts of the Balkans were hit by torrential rains and hailstorms causing flooding and destruction, and promoting the spread of diseases. These two countries recorded a drop in wheat and barley yields: -8 % for both crops in Slovenia and respectively -12 % and -11 % in CroatiaCereal crops in Italy and Greece were affected by this over-wetness from May to mid-June, with lodging, fungal diseases and a loss of grain quality. On the other hand, wheat and barley yields are expected to remain slightly above the five-year average, with +1 % and +2 % respectively for theItaly and +5 % and +6 % for the Greece.

In France, the main European cereal producing country, yields of soft wheat and barley are satisfactory in terms of quality and quantity. – up +3 % and +7 % compared to the 5-year average. However, in the south of the country, droughts and storms impacted the quantity and quality of durum wheat[4]. According to field observations, the grains are sometimes smaller or have an opaque and floury appearance (mitadinage)[5].

On the eastern Mediterranean coast, well-distributed rainfall, close to or even above seasonal norms during the development of cereal crops, has ensured a production higher than in 2022, a year of severe droughts. Cereal production is expected to reach 3.3 million tonnes in Syria, and 37.4 million tonnes in Türkiye, or 6 % more than the average[6]. For the latter, the humidity conditions could, in places, lead to cases of early germination.

Unlike its Maghreb neighbors, theEgypt shows a level of wheat production above the 5-year average (+9 %), partly explained by an increase in the areas cultivated with wheat and the majority use of irrigation, making producers less dependent on variations in rainfall.

Summer and perennial crops between rain and high heat

According to JRC MARS forecasts, in the Mediterranean region, The heavy summer rains – which began in early June – should be generally favourable for summer crops, including in Spain, Portugal, Tunisia and eastern Algeria. However, some summer crops and orchards in Italy, Slovenia and Croatia were damaged by torrential rains and hailstorms. Recent heat waves – sometimes late, as in France – may have caused crop burns and drying out, although losses are still undetermined. At the same time, in the first half of September, severe flooding hit Spain, Italy, Greece, Turkey and Libya and caused extensive damage to agricultural land. These losses are still difficult to quantify at present and are therefore not included in this assessment. For example, 23 % of Greek arable land may have been affected by the Storm Daniel, a Mediterranean subtropical cyclone, which also submerged Turkey and Libya. In Libya, these floods – which led to the rupture of two dams – caused thousands of deaths and countless damages. The agricultural region of Cyrenaica in the east of the country has been particularly affected..

In Greece, heavy summer rains have slowed the growing cycle of some summer crops, but the consequences on the quality and quantity of harvests remain undetermined. Italy, where the storms were also very violent, vineyards and orchards have been damaged, particularly in Emilia-Romagna, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Veneto, Lombardy and Piedmont. Peach production is estimated to be down 9.1% year-on-year and 13.1% compared to the five-year average.[7]. Overall, the production of stone fruits (nectarine, peach, flat peach, apricot, pavia) is predicted to be down compared to last year by Europêch' in Greece and especially in Italy[8].

At Morocco, some regions including the Souss-Massa – the country's main fruit and vegetable production area – were affected by heat waves and sandstorms in August, causing damage to some crops (tomato, pepper, olive, red fruit, banana). For the moment, the losses have not yet been quantified. According to David Gasc, stone fruits and almonds are also expected to experience a drop in yield in TunisiaHe adds that olive yields are falling in Spain and in Tunisia, the world's leading exporters of olive oil along with Italy. olive trees have indeed suffered strong thermal and water stress between May and June, during flowering. In Andalusia, where more than half of Spain's olive-growing areas are concentrated, many villages depend on this production, often carried out as a monoculture, and are all the more economically vulnerable in the face of these repeated droughts.

In France, the perspectives are contrasted according to the vineyards, some having been badly affected by droughts while others were able to rely on sufficient rainfall or the use of irrigation to limit water stress. In some areas, harvests are even expected to be higher than last year. Vines, particularly in Bordeaux and the Southwest, have suffered from a resurgence of mildew, fueled by wet weather and high temperatures.[9]Nationally, however, production estimates remain favourable, at or above the five-year average.

Summer rains ensured good conditions for large-scale corn and sunflower crops on the northern and eastern shores of the MediterraneanProduction is expected to remain stable compared to the five-year average. The July heatwaves do not appear to have had an impact on corn fertility.[10], mainly irrigated, in Spain and Portugal. In Türkiye, France, Italy and Croatia, yields on the soy should be much better than last year. However, the late heatwaves that occurred in mid-August and early September may have had consequences that are difficult to measure at this time.

In Spain, the production of stone fruits (nectarine, peach, flat peach, apricot, pavia) for the year 2023 would be up compared to last year (+50 %)[11]. The production of apple would also be very satisfactory (+30 %) compared to last year[12]. The 2023/2024 campaign of lemon could reach a level higher than the five previous campaigns with an increase of 30 % in one year for the “Fino” variety, despite devastating hail episodes for at least 1000 ha in the region of Murcia[13].

In the Mediterranean regions French, hailstorms in early June caused some losses in the orchards, but the high temperatures and rainfall that followed ensured good quality and growth of the fruit. National apricot production is estimated to be 20.% higher than the 5-year average, although down 3.% from last year.[14]. The production of peaches, nectarines, nectarines and pavias would be higher than the five-year average of around 3 % and close to last year (+1 %)[15]. The production of apple, although contrasting between regions, should follow the same trend on a national scale (+11 % in one year)[16].

Despite more favorable conditions than the summer of 2022, which was punctuated by severe droughts, Mediterranean farmland has once again been confronted this year with several intense weather events, causing, sometimes simultaneously, water stress, heat stress, excessive humidity, a resurgence of diseases or crop deterioration. A hotspot of climate change, the region is already affected by record heat waves, episodes of drought and violent storms, which are expected to intensify and become more frequent in the coming years according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).[17]Recent events in Libya are a reminder of the fragility of societies, which are sometimes ill-adapted to the intensification of these climatic hazards. The mobilization of all stakeholders, from farmers to consumers and public authorities, is therefore imperative to think and implement adaptation strategies. 

[1] MED-Amin, a cooperation network around Mediterranean agricultural markets, provides qualitative data on cereal crops from 13 member countries of the International Centre for Advanced Mediterranean Agronomic Studies (CIHEAM). They produce three bulletins on harvest quality, based on remote sensing data and field data collected by local observers.

[2] FAO. July 2023. Quarterly World Report – Crop Prospects and Food Situation ".

[3] European Commission. August 2023. Crop monitoring in Europe – August 2023 ".

[4] FranceAgriMer, Arvalis, Terres Inovia. August 2023. Quality of the 2023 harvest of straw cereals, rapeseed and protein crops.

[5] J. Papin, R. Borget and I. Escoffier (La France Agricole). August 2023. An average harvest ".

[6] FAO. July 2023. Quarterly World Report – Crop Prospects and Food Situation ".

[7] Agreste. August 2023. Quick Info – Fruits – Peach ".

[8] Ministerio de agriculture, pesca y alimentación. 2023. “ Boletín fruit of hueso. Summary of the 2023 campaign ".

[9] Agreste. August 2023. Quick Info – Viticulture ".

[10] European Commission. August 2023. Crop monitoring in Europe – August 2023 ".

[11] Ministerio de agriculture, pesca y alimentación. 2023. “ Boletín fruit of hueso. Summary of the 2023 campaign ".

[12] Agreste. August 2023. Quick Info – Fruits – Apple ".

[13] AILIMPO. July 2023. Preaforo de cosecha de limón fino en España próxima campaña 2023/2024 ".

[14] Agreste. August 2023. Quick Info – Fruits – Apricot ".

[15] Agreste. August 2023. Quick Info – Fruits – Peach ".

[16] Agreste. August 2023. Quick Info – Fruits – Apple ".

[17] Ali et al. 2022. « Cross-Chapter Paper 4: Mediterranean Region ".