Poland/Ukraine: Understanding the Blocking and Unblocking of Grain
Farmers' protests, the European Commission's anger, an emergency agreement for cargo transit... the last few days have been more than eventful in Central Europe. At the heart of the issues: Ukrainian grain. A closer look.
For nearly a year, Ukraine's European neighbors – Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia in particular – have seen millions of tons of wheat and corn arrive. According to a publication produced by the FARM Foundation A few weeks ago, 50,000 tonnes of Ukrainian wheat were exported to the European Union since 2022, more than half of which went to Poland, Hungary and Romania.
Poland leads the way
The problem is that the silos are overflowing. And Poland, itself a major producer, is facing a surplus of 8 to 9 million tons of grain. Farmers are seeing a collapse in prices, with a ton of wheat at the national level having fallen from 390 euros to 190 euros. To ease tensions, the Polish government decided to strike hard by announcing on April 15 that it would close its borders to grain until the end of June.
Faced with similar problems, Slovakia and Hungary did the same last weekend. This Wednesday, April 19, it was Bulgaria's turn to announce the closure of its borders. This widespread measure did not fail to provoke a reaction from the European Commission, deeming it "unacceptable." "It is important to stress that trade policy is the exclusive competence of the EU and that unilateral actions are not acceptable.", said Miriam Garcia Ferrer, spokesperson for the European executive, on April 17.
A provisional agreement
To ease tensions, the Commission announced on April 19 the release of a second aid package of 100 million for Polish, Slovak, and Hungarian farmers, as they have been demanding for several weeks. For its part, Poland announced on the evening of April 18 that it had reached an agreement with Ukraine on the resumption, from April 21, 2023, of only the transit of Ukrainian grain shipments through its territory. Robert Telus, the Polish Minister of Agriculture, clarified that these transit shipments " will be sealed and monitored".
A tense June ahead
The coming weeks promise to be complex. One big question is: will grain still be able to leave Ukraine?
Since the beginning of the war, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria have played a decisive role in the export of these grains. But they have not managed to re-export all of these volumes – as our last article shows ("Wheat and war in Ukraine: what impact for Africa?", which is not without consequences for producers in Central Europe.
Will Western Europe want to take over? But which country will position itself to do so, given the economic and logistical challenges this represents?
The other point of tension is playing out on the Black Sea side, as the wheat harvest is about to begin. Established eight months ago to allow the exit of Ukrainian grain by ship, the maritime corridor has been renewed until May 18. But Russia still casts doubt on the sustainability of the system. With the crisis of recent days on land routes, uncertainties are now on both fronts: at sea and on land.
