Trade war and agriculture: focus on sub-Saharan Africa

In the current trade war, relations between major economic powers like the United States, China, and the European Union are often at the center of discussions. But what about developing countries? FARM shares some key insights in four charts.

Before sharing more in-depth analyses in the coming days, here are some background elements on sub-Saharan African countries, their economic partners, and the evolution of agricultural and food trade, particularly with the United States. Washington remains a major partner of sub-Saharan African countries that were hit hard by President Trump's Liberation Day announcements, particularly Madagascar and Lesotho, which were to be hit with 47,% of customs duties on all products entering the United States. The 90-day suspension of customs duty increases announced on April 9 brings relief to countries like South Africa, Madagascar, and Côte d'Ivoire, although customs tariffs of 10,% remain in place. Many sectors could be weakened, such as cocoa farming and textiles.

Agricultural and food exports of African countries today

According to figures from Chatham House's Resource Trade Earth database (UNCOMTRADE sources), sub-Saharan Africa's agricultural trade will reach 56.8 billion $ in 2022, 18 % corresponding to intra-zone trade (excluding the Maghreb). South Africa will contribute around a quarter of intra-zone exports in 2022. The European Union remains a major partner with 16 billion $, the Netherlands is the leading destination, particularly due to the country's port infrastructure. Cocoa beans represent, in value, nearly half of trade between the European Union and sub-Saharan Africa. China is also a major and growing partner with 3.9 billion, including 1 billion for sesame seeds, for example. India is a major importing country, and cashew nuts are a key product in this trade.

Trends to note:

• Diversification of African export markets towards emerging economies and intra-African markets. The trade ministers of the Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) met on April 15 in Kinshasa. to boost intra-regional trade
•  EU decline and growth of Brazil, Russia, India and especially China

Focus on trade with the United States

• In value, exports to the United States have seen continuous growth, from 890 million $ in 2010 to 3.3 billion $ in 2022.
• In volume, they reach 1.3 million tonnes in 2022 and have seen an increase especially after 2015.

Main exporting countries:

Trade relationships about to be redefined?

AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act) is the cornerstone of trade relations between the United States and sub-Saharan African countries. Adopted in May 2000 by the U.S. Congress and signed by President Bill Clinton, this law has been renewed but is due to expire in September 2025.

What about US exports to sub-Saharan Africa?

US exports to sub-Saharan Africa today amount to 4 million tonnes (including 3.1 million tonnes of cereals, mainly wheat) and a value of 2.6 billion tonnes. The main destinations are Nigeria and Ethiopia.

Cutting development aid will weaken these countries

The United States was a major financier of development aid to sub-Saharan African countries, particularly in the areas of food aid and health programs. It is still difficult to know exactly what the consequences of the latest measures will be on African jobs and economies. African leaders are currently meeting to assess these impacts and the responses to be made: diversifying markets while strengthening the African free trade area?

The cessation of American aid, particularly through USAID, poses a much greater risk, especially for the most vulnerable. The World Food Program is already reducing its rations for refugees in Rwanda and Sudan.

Resources :

On African countries and the “pause” granted by Donald Trump: https://www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/20250411-afrique-le-continent-soulag%C3%A9-apr%C3%A8s-le-recul-de-donald-trump-sur-les-droits-de-douanes

A broader article in English on the impact of Trump's trade policy on agricultural trade: https://www.ifpri.org/blog/how-reciprocal-tariffs-harm-agricultural-trade/