Covid-19 crisis and prospects for food security in Africa
The Covid-19 pandemic has created a global health crisis unprecedented in the speed of its spread and evolution. It has caused, due to the lockdown, a major economic crisis. It has revived fears of food shortages and famines. It calls into question the vulnerability and sustainability of food systems, particularly the intensive, specialized, concentrated, globalized, and financialized agro-industrial model. Finally, this dual crisis is compromising food and nutritional security, which is the realization of the right to food enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. There are many questions about the medium-term consequences of this crisis.
How will food trade evolve?
First, one may question the continued globalization of agricultural markets, which have been growing strongly since the 1990s but stagnating since 2013. International trade is a necessity to ensure additional supplies for deficit countries and provides foreign currency for exporting countries. However, the provisions of the WTO and bilateral agreements do not take into account the United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) or the concept of food sovereignty. Some agricultural production intended for export will suffer declines, resulting in a loss of income for producers. Conversely, food imports will be severely disrupted (particularly in countries no longer exporting to preserve their resources), with obvious risks of undersupply in some countries, which could even lead to hunger revolts in some African cities. It is proposed that agreements be signed between Europe and Africa guaranteeing multi-year supply volumes and prices for strategic food products, which is not currently the case with EU-Africa economic partnership agreements. Furthermore, a percentage of the amount of agricultural and mining products exported from Africa could be paid into a fund under the control of a United Nations institution to help African farmers and states protect their resources.
What are the possible scenarios for the next ten years?
Taking into account current trends, and drawing inspiration from the Inrae-Cirad Agrimonde-Terra prospective and the work of the West Africa Prospective Forum Led by Futuribles, three scenarios can be envisaged for the next five years. These avenues of reflection indicate that the crisis can be a source of opportunities that should be seized. The scenarios are:
Communities ‒ Community-based agricultureerural areas in a fragmented worlde
Without major structural change, the world remains gripped by political, economic, social, environmental, and health crises. In Africa, the situations are contrasting: on the one hand, small towns and rural communities are pooling agricultural land management to ensure their food security and adopting agroecological practices. On the other, yields from peri-urban and rural agriculture and livestock farming are declining or at best stagnating, and food and nutritional insecurity are widespread, particularly if imports are limited. This implies deforestation and the expansion of agricultural land.
Regionalization ‒ An agriculture s'pressing systemsemy food reregional
International trade is limited. In Africa, governments are becoming aware of the need to strengthen states while decentralizing their operations. They are encouraging more active participation by populations, particularly young people, in decision-making. Intra-regional trade is growing, primarily informally. The integration of rural areas into the urban network is intensifying thanks to trade. The decrease in food imports is allowing the emergence of territorialized food systems. Agro-ecological practices are spreading. Local product processing creates jobs. Food and nutritional security is ensured in territories with land and local or regional trade capacity, but it is less so in many other territories. Limited trade with the rest of the world requires deforestation to gain land for cultivation.
Metropolitanization ‒ Pilot agricultureee by the metropolization
Urbanization continues. Modern food chains satisfy a growing middle class. Consumption of sweet, fatty, and off-farm products, often artisanally and by women, is increasing. Input- and capital-intensive cropping systems are those used in export agriculture and in irrigated areas used to supply cities. High technological intensity and specialization of agricultural production are often favored. Large companies are considered the driving forces behind agricultural modernization. Many small farmers are excluded from their land and migrate to metropolitan areas or Europe.
Action paths for sustainable food systems
To promote the emergence of sustainable food systems, several levers must be activated.
Greater complementarity and food sovereignty
Food imports are on the rise, but it is important to distinguish between foods of regional origin, those imported from other continents that are directly consumable, and those imported from other continents and then processed locally. In West Africa-Cameroon-Chad, all foods combined, the economic value of the consumption of products of national or regional origin represents approximately four-fifths of the countries' food consumption, with the exception of Senegal and Mauritania, where local products represent only 50 to 60 % of consumption. In terms of energy intake, imports (mainly wheat and rice) provide, on a weighted average, 10 % of total calorie intake, with again the exceptions of Senegal and Mauritania. The Covid-19 crisis has brought the issue of food sovereignty back to the agenda, in the sense of restoring a sufficient food supply for starchy crops. This is not a rejection of globalization but the recognition of the need to develop local food systems and to exploit the complementarities between territories and countries, and implies new methods of governance.
Diverse and sustainable food systems
Africa has comparative advantages, including a diversity of food systems, production, and resources, the presence of many small-scale local producers, transporters, and distributors, local storage capacities, and markets. Its main weaknesses are the informality of activities, losses (in the fields, during storage and transport), and insufficient processing capacities. Nevertheless, a "hidden middle" appears to be developing. More formalized value chains made it possible to secure the supply of basic products, diversify the diet, add value, create jobs in rural and urban areas, improve product quality, and lower prices. These food systems—which will vary depending on ecosystems and population densities—require public and private capital.
Agricultural production requires land (in limited quantities), labor, capital, knowledge and practices, and technology. The agro-industrial model of rich countries, which is reaching its limits, must be replaced by a sustainable agricultural and food model adapted to family farmers. For them, land security, agroecological practices, particularly those related to soil health, and price support are essential. The enormous budgetary contributions announced to limit the economic effects of the Covid-19 crisis would certainly have been better used in preventive actions or in programs to develop African food systems.
Better balanced diets
While energy intake has increased in sub-Saharan Africa, nutritional insecurity is constant, and food insecurity is present during crises or in certain territories. Diets are severely deficient in micronutrients (iron deficiency anemia, vitamin A, zinc, and iodine deficiencies), particularly due to insufficient consumption of animal products, vegetables, and fruits. In cities, obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases linked to overconsumption of fat, sugar, and salt in relation to reduced physical activity are increasing. Improving nutritional balance is a public health issue that must be addressed through education.
Recognition of the role of the informal economy
The lockdown has demonstrated its impact, particularly on food production and distribution chains, both for domestic and export markets. Many Africans living from hand to mouth have found themselves in a situation of great vulnerability, as the lockdown prevents them from continuing their activities. They benefit from no social protection. In Africa, we are talking about a "PochVid 20" epidemic. This crisis has also highlighted the fundamental role of the informal sector in Africa, which offers solutions when public authorities lack the means to do so. Public administrations could better recognize its role, encourage it to modernize and consolidate, and help its workers access health and education services, as well as integrate into the formal economy.
Downstream-driven research
Even if science cannot solve all societal issues, Africa should develop scientific and technical research and have human, financial, legal, and partnership resources for everything related to food systems. Research should be downstream-driven, interdisciplinary, participatory, forward-looking, and credible, and work more on the complementarity between specialization and diversification at different spatial and organizational scales.
All regions of the world are facing climate change, and to varying degrees, epidemics and conflicts. In 2008, the economic and financial crisis was massive. This year, 2020, the coronavirus pandemic is causing significant economic and social difficulties in many countries. Once Covid-19 is under control, we will likely face other health and environmental challenges. In any case, the food issue must be better addressed without delay. The following question must be asked: is it possible to organize multipolar food security or sovereignty at the global level? The complementarities existing within the "Africa-Mediterranean-Europe (AME) Vertical" could constitute the basis for macro-regional solidarity guaranteeing sustainable co-development. In each country, multi-stakeholder and intergenerational agricultural and food partnerships should be organized and, at the global level, an action plan accompanied by the necessary resources should ensure the advent of sustainable, supportive, productive and equitable food and nutrition systems.
To find out more:
Michel Dron and Philippe Kim-Bonbled (under the direction of), “Covid-19 and agriculture. An opportunity for the agricultural and food transition?”, French Academy of Agriculture, Presses des Mines, 2020.
FARM-Pluriagri Symposium, “Africa and the Covid-19 Crisis: In Search of Greater Resilience in Food Systems,” December 18, 2020.
