Africa's Food Dependence: Between Concern and Alarmism  

Contrary to popular belief, sub-Saharan Africa's dependence on food imports is relatively modest: around 15 to 20 percent of consumption. This dependence could increase in the coming decades. But an excessive focus on this indicator risks obscuring the major challenges facing agriculture and public policy: increasing agricultural labor productivity, particularly for small producers, in an environmentally sustainable manner; and developing food processing to meet urban demand and create jobs.

The image of an Africa unable to feed itself is deeply rooted in the imagination not only of Westerners, but also of many Africans. It permeates discourse to the point of distorting reality, excessively darkening a picture that, as it stands, nevertheless raises legitimate concerns. In a recent note written for the Sol association[1], Jacques Berthelot accuses UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) of "propagates the myth of Africa's enormous food dependence", an official of this organization having affirmed, on August 11, 2020, that "From 2016 to 2018, Africa imported approximately 85 billion pounds of its food from outside the continent, leading to an annual food import bill of $35 billion, which is expected to reach $110 billion by 2025."The official's statement, published on the OECD and UNCTAD websites, quickly circulated around the world.

After a careful analysis, J. Berthelot corrects the figures. According to his estimates, over the period 2016-18, the share of extra-African imports in the value of the continent's food consumption was approximately 18 % if exports are not taken into account (consisting mainly of products that are little consumed locally, such as cocoa) and 6 % if these are included in the calculation (in other words, if we reason in terms of net imports). For North Africa, the corresponding shares are 29 % and 20 % respectively; for sub-Saharan Africa, 13 % and 7 %. West Africa is even said to have a surplus, thanks in particular to cocoa exports. In total, this is far from the 85 % mentioned above.[2], even if the situation varies greatly depending on the country and the product[3] (painting).

These estimates are consistent with those from other calculations, expressing the quantity of each commodity in food calorie equivalents[4]. Furthermore, notes Nicolas Bricas, socio-economist at CIRAD, "When we look at household consumption surveys, we see that the vast majority of their food expenditure is spent on buying local products.", even though Africa does indeed import cereals, milk powder and oil to feed its cities[5].

It is important to put these data into perspective. While it is true that Africa has achieved remarkable performance in agricultural production in recent decades, it is equally true that per capita production has stagnated or even declined. And if imports remain relatively low, this is largely due to the prevalence of poverty, which limits household consumption. On the eve of the Covid-19 pandemic, nearly a fifth of the region's population (including North Africa) was undernourished; half of them suffered from "moderate or severe" food insecurity, according to FAO standards. The health crisis has worsened the situation. What will happen tomorrow, with the explosion in demand linked to population growth, the negative impact of climate change on yields, and the need to preserve savannahs and forests to mitigate this change and protect biodiversity: will Africa not have to rely more on global markets to eat its fill?

To avoid excessive dependence on food imports, the continent must address two challenges. First, improve agricultural labor productivity, the low level of which traps small producers in inextricable poverty. This is an enormous challenge, which faces two pitfalls: increasing yields in an environmentally sustainable manner by adopting new production methods that are more agroecological but less efficient in the short term.[6] ; increase the available land area per agricultural worker, despite the increase in rural population density, which is hampering farm expansion. Then, develop the processing of agricultural products. Beyond production, in fact, it is the processing of agricultural products that will create value, by responding to the qualitative change in demand due to urbanization, and generate the jobs that Africa so desperately needs. If African agricultural sectors meet these two challenges, there is no doubt that they will be able to successfully face competition from imported products. Provided, of course, that they are supported by ambitious public policies, both in terms of budgets and border protection. This is where the problem lies.

[1] According to a study by INRAE for Pluriagri, the ratio of food imports to consumption, in calorie equivalent, in sub-Saharan Africa was on average 18 % in 2010. This figure should be compared to the 15 % obtained, using the same method of calculation, with the figures from J. Berthelot for the period 2016-18 (see note 2).

[2] "'It is said that Africa is fed by imports, as if it could not feed itself...' (Nicolas Bricas)", ecofin agency, December 18, 2020.

[3] According to available data, "Agroecology would not allow yields equivalent to those of intensive agriculture of the 'green revolution' type to be achieved, but it would nevertheless contribute to significantly improving them.", compared to “classic farming practices in West Africa, that is to say with a very low level of synthetic inputs”. Source: Philippe Roudier and Djiby Dia, “A third way for African agriculture? The case of agroecology in Senegal”, in French Development Agency, The African Economy 2021, The Discovery, 2021.

[4] Note available soon on the site https://www.sol-asso.fr/analyses-politiques-agricoles-jacques-berthelot-2021/

[5] The observation remains valid if we consider the ratio of imports to food consumption, defining consumption as the sum of production and net imports. According to our estimates, over the period 2016-2018, the value of this ratio is 33 % for North Africa and 15 % for sub-Saharan Africa.

[6] As seen during the price surge in 2008, the risks linked to dependence on international markets are particularly acute for the most consumed commodities: cereals, dairy products, etc. However, according to J. Berthelot, the share of imports in African consumption of the main energy commodities, namely cereals and the root-tuber-plantain group, in calorie equivalent, barely reached 12 % (44 % in North Africa and 6 % in sub-Saharan Africa) over the period 2016-18.