COP28: What is the outcome for agriculture and food?

Joint Statement on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems and Climate Action

On the second day of COP28, discussions resulted in a Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems and Climate Action, signed by 158 membersThrough this text, the signatory countries recognize that the food systems must absolutely adapt and transform to meet the imperatives of climate changeThey collectively set themselves 5 objectives: the development of adaptation and resilience activities; the promotion of food security and nutrition; the support of producers including smallholder farmers and traditional fishermen; the strengthening of integrated water management in food systems; and the maximization of climate and environmental co-benefits associated with food systems. The latter timidly integrates the need to move from practices that emit high levels of greenhouse gases to more sustainable production and consumption approaches – without directly mentioning fossil fuels.

To achieve these goals, they are committed to integrating food systems transition measures to their national adaptation plans, their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), their biodiversity strategies and their long-term strategies, by the end of 2025 and including an initial assessment at the end of 2024.

To ensure the implementation of these commitments, announcements have been made, such as the partnership for food systems, agricultural innovation and climate action between the United Arab Emirates and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, worth US$200 million. The FARM Foundation questions the effects of an overly techno-solutionist vision in a world that will have to be more energy-efficient and face the dual challenge of climate change and biodiversity loss. It is also necessary to question the accessibility and relevance of these innovations on the scale of small family farms.

The joint declaration is not legally binding, the targets are not quantified, and no action plan is presented to concretely achieve these objectives. It will therefore be necessary to wait until the end of 2024 to estimate the involvement of each country in the implementation of concrete actions aligned with this declaration.

FAO's ambitious roadmap for transforming agri-food systems

On the occasion of the day dedicated to food, agriculture and water – December 10, theFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) presented a agri-food systems transformation plan before the ministers and senior officials gathered at COP28. This plan presents 120 action points around 10 priority areas including livestock, fisheries and aquaculture, soil and water, and food waste. The goal is to transform agri-food systems to eradicate world hunger – 2^th Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) – while remaining below the 1.5°C limit of global warming set by the Paris Agreement. 

This proposal is based in part on the mitigation potentials of agri-food systems through the capture and reduction of greenhouse gases for example through soil management or technologies enabling the reduction of methane emissions.

This action plan – including quantified objectives and their deadlines – could make it possible to implement the ambitions displayed in the joint declaration. on sustainable agriculture, resilient food systems, and climate action. This roadmap is intended to be ambitious and optimistic in order to mobilize decision-makers, civil society, and the private sector.

This first part aims to provide a global vision. Two volumes will complete it: one providing a regional vision on costs and financing will be presented in 2024 at COP29; the other establishing national action plans on monitoring and responsibilities will be introduced at COP30 in 2025.

Loss and Damage Fund

Having been the subject of pressing demands from developing countries for several years, theoperationalization of the “loss and damage” fund was ratified on the first day of COP28. The fund must enable financial support to be provided to the most vulnerable countries affected by extreme events linked to climate change to compensate for losses and damages suffered and ensure reconstruction efforts. These extreme phenomena such as droughts, floods, and rising water levels particularly affect agriculture, directly affecting farms and producers and causing considerable economic losses. This historic advance has been welcomed almost unanimously, but questions remain about its operation, its donors, and its beneficiaries.

This decision incorporates the recommendations negotiated during the fifth meeting of the transition committee, which was to outline the main points of this fund on the eve of COP28. The fund will be hosted for 4 years at the World Bank – a compromise for developing countries, which are very critical of the functioning of the institution – and managed by a board of directors composed of 14 developing countries and 12 developed countries, representing both beneficiaries and donors. Once created, this body will have to define who the beneficiaries will be and what the terms of access to the Fund will be. The World Bank should only have an operations management role. 

Contributions will be in the form of donations, not loans. The text is not binding: it does not mention any quantified objective for the capitalization of the fund, nor even an obligation to contributeDeveloped countries are "urged" to contribute, while developing countries - targeting developing countries with high greenhouse gas emissions such as China - are "encouraged". Initial contributions have been announced for a total of 792 million US dollars[1], while some developing countries were asking for at least 100 billion US dollars a year, and that their needs – to compensate only for economic losses – have been estimated at between 116 and 435 billion in 2020, and between 290 and 580 billion for 2030[2]. In view of the difficulty of developed countries in keeping their climate financing promises, the countries of the South wish that other complementary sources of financing are considered to feed this fund like international taxation on fossil fuels, on air transport or on maritime transport[3].

Zero deforestation program in the Amazon by 2030

At COP28, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, President of Brazil, outlined the outlines of his zero deforestation program in the Amazon by 2030, announced this summer. This plan would be accompanied by the reconversion of approximately 40 million hectares made unsuitable for agriculture and degraded by agribusiness and livestock farmingIt would also rely on a system for tracking forest, livestock and agricultural products from the Amazon. In other words, The program aims to increase the agricultural area without deforestation, by restoring and then reusing initially degraded land.To ensure this agricultural expansion, Brazil wishes to rely on advances in genetics and engineering, without specifying the conditions for the evolution of the agricultural model responsible for the initial degradation of these lands.

Since taking office, Lula seems to be giving himself the means to achieve his ambitions with a record reduction of 42% in deforestation in the Amazon between January and July 2023[4]. On the other hand, the Cerrado – Brazilian tropical savannah – is highly threatened by deforestation, largely due to agricultural activities. This region benefits from few protective measures.[5].

To ensure the implementation of this program, the Brazilian government plans to invest up to $120 billion over 10 years. Assuming its responsibility for the global climate balance, Brazil hopes to see other Amazonian countries join it in this zero deforestation objective. At the same time, it has also proposed the creation of an international fund for the preservation of tropical forests in 80 countries with an annual payment mechanism based on the number of hectares restored or not deforested. Countries would then have to guarantee a reduction or at least a stabilization of the annual deforestation rate to benefit from it. The fund could be funded by foreign investment funds and other forms of financing such as contributions from the oil industry, for an initial target of US$250 billion.

COP30, which will take place in Brazil, will be an opportunity to make an initial assessment of the program.

The COP28 Agreement: “transitioning away from fossil fuels”

Although theOPEC called on its members to reject any agreement targeting fossil fuels, that COP28 was chaired by the CEO of a major oil group and that the first text proposed by the United Arab Emirates was deemed disappointing, the negotiations continued to arrive at a agreement mentioning fossil fuels for the first time. The final text, signed by 200 countries December 13, 2023, calls more specifically for “transition away from fossil fuels” to “achieve carbon neutrality by 2050”It is therefore in line with the objectives of limiting global warming of the Paris Agreement and follows scientific recommendations.

However, the COP28 Agreement must be followed by strong measures – including a massive adoption of renewable energies – to ensure that this commitment does not remain in vain. Several questions remain unanswered: what will be the mobilization of States and the private sector? What transition trajectory, particularly for developing countries whose energy consumption will grow and which remain heavily dependent on fossil fuels? This is a major challenge for food systems that will need to transition to more carbon-neutral models in a “fair and equitable” manner – as the text specifies – that is to say taking into account the technical and financial means available to each country to move away from fossil fuels.

Conclusion

This COP28, which focused on fossil fuels, still left an unprecedented place for agriculture. Although commitments on this subject remain relatively unbinding and unplanned, and therefore do not guarantee their implementation, this is an encouraging first step towards the transformation of agriculture. The discussions, negotiations, and announcements highlighted the strategic role of food systems in ensuring mitigation and adaptation, but agriculture still seriously lacks funding to ensure its transition – only 4% of climate finance is currently dedicated to it.[6].

The final agreement could prevent the worst-case scenario by limiting greenhouse gas emissions and thus the impacts of climate change. But this remains insufficient and will require support for the adaptation of agricultural systems, which are highly vulnerable to each additional degree of warming. financing challenge therefore remains significant and will require the mobilization of all stakeholders and particularly the private sector, widely highlighted during this COP[7].

Précila Rambhunjun, research manager at the FARM Foundation

[1] https://www.cop28.com/en/

[2] According to the study by Markandya and González-Eguino: https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-72026-5_14

[3] https://assets-global.website-files.com/605869242b205050a0579e87/6462710b127e29f1b1e74ee7_The_Loss_and_Damage_Finance_Landscape_HBF_L%26DC_15052023.pdf

[4] According to Brazilian Environment Minister Marina Silva: https://www.lesechos.fr/monde/ameriques/bresil-la-deforestation-recule-1978310

[5] https://geoconfluences.ens-lyon.fr/informations-scientifiques/dossiers-thematiques/changement-global/articles-scientifiques/preserver-le-cerrado

[6] According to Maximo Torero, FAO Chief Economist: https://news.un.org/fr/story/2023/12/1141492

[7] Funding pledges for agriculture were made throughout COP28, particularly on the dedicated day. Several initiatives were announced to finance the transformation of food systems, with commitments from private stakeholders. For more information: https://prod-cd-cdn.azureedge.net/-/media/Project/COP28/Dec-10.pdf?rev=081a819a524e47189c3730d82ea57b3d